Monthly Archive for June, 2009

The Life of Steve Jobs – So Far

1990
About this time, Jobs meets Laurene Powell, when he speaks at a class at Stanford business school. They exchange numbers. Jobs had a business dinner that night. ”I was in the parking lot, with the key in the car, and I thought to myself, If this is my last night on earth, would I rather spend it at a business meeting or with this woman? I ran across the parking lot, asked her if she’d have dinner with me. She said yes, we walked into town and we’ve been together ever since.”

innen

:)

1997
“Steve is going to fuck Gil so hard his eardrums will pop,” says an anonymous ex Apple employee in regards to Jobs returning to Apple, to New Yorker magazine.

Quer-Durchs-Land-Ticket woot

34€, 9:00-től éjjel 3-ig egész németországban… :)
Quer-Durchs-Land-Ticket

Következmények nélküli ország…

A Magyar Villamos Művek Zrt. (MVM) és a Budapesti Közlekedési Zrt. (BKV) is megerősítette az Index értesülését, miszerint mindkét, Kocsis István által korábban, illetve jelenleg irányított állami óriásvállalat alvállalkozóként foglalkoztatja a 2007-ben alapított Pannónia Bau Kft.-t. Ennek tulajdonosát, a Power Investments International II S.á.r.l. nevű luxemburgi vállalatot Szász András üzletember, Kocsis István tanácsadója alapította Luxemburgban és egyben ő képviseli Magyarországon.

A Power Investments II. tulajdonosi háttere kideríthetetlen, az viszont biztos, hogy az MVM-nél Kocsis István tanácsadójaként foglalkoztatott Szász András üzletember alapította Luxemburgban. Ő Kocsis szerint „az MVM nemzetközi terjeszkedési stratégiájának megvalósítását segítette a Meinl Bankkal közösen”. Szász 2007-ben, egy Power Investments International nevű Kajmán-szigeteki offshore cég nevében alapította a luxemburgi céget, amely 2008. júniusában a Kapolyi-féle Kárpát Energo Zrt. közbeiktatásával egy System Investment Corporation nevű panamai offshore cég tulajdonába került.

részletek innen: Bodoky Tamás cikke az indexen

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iotop install

Az iotop olyan mint a top, csak a lemezműveleteket mutatja (meg lehet nézni vele, hogy a sok torrentezés mennyire vágja haza a vinyót :) )

sudo apt-get install iotop

iotop

o – val lehet csak az éppen író/olvasó műveletekre szűkíteni

iotop2

Perl folytatás

cpan
install Win32::GuiTest

http://www.piotrkaluski.com/files/winguitest/docs/ch02s02.html

http://www.piotrkaluski.com/files/winguitest/docs/ch02s04.html#id5463948

http://search.cpan.org/dist/Win32-GuiTest/lib/Win32/GuiTest/Examples.pm

http://search.cpan.org/~karasik/Win32-GuiTest/lib/Win32/GuiTest.pm

kell WinSpy++

magyarázat a Global symbol ... requires explicit package hibákra: http://www.cs.cf.ac.uk/Dave/PERL/node151.html

majom…

61864_4

19

amúgy egy művész installációja New Yorkban :)

Durva albis/kolis sztorik…

61889_1

:) , innen

beküldte: nyulka 2009-06-11 12:32:48
hetekig elmélkedtünk azon, hogy mi kerülhetett a kocsijába, amitõl olyan nagyon büdös van benne. ázott lábszagszerû volt, és hétrõl hétre intenzívebb, egyre elviselhetetlenebb. amikor már nem bírt beülni a szagtól a kocsiba megkereste: egy bontatlan doboz, márciusi lejáratú kaukázusi kefír volt az, beszorulva az anyósülés alá. ekkor már júniust írtunk…

beküldte: Bela 2009-06-11 12:46:37
mi egyszer egy kölcsönkocsival utaztunk külföldre aminek nagyon büdös volt a csomagtartója a második határátlépésnél szétkapták a kocsit mert gyanúsak voltunk :-) meg büdösek is és akkor végre a vámos megtalálta azt az oszlásnak indult muflon fejet amit a tulaj egy pár hete az autóban felejtett

Six Ways to Compute the Relative Value of a U.S. Dollar Amount, 1774 to Present

Determining the relative value of an amount of money in one year compared to another is more complicated than it seems at first. There is no single “correct” measure, and economic historians use one or more different indicators depending on the context of the question.

Most indices are measured as the price of a “bundle” of goods and services that a representative group buys or earns. Over time the bundle changes; for example, carriages are replaced with automobiles, and new goods and services are created such as cellular phones and heart transplants.

These considerations do not stop the fascination with these comparisons or even the necessity for them. For example, such comparisons may be critical to determine appropriate levels of compensation in a legal case that has been deferred. The context of the question, however, may lead to a preferable measure and that measure may not be the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is used far too often without thought to its consequences.

The example below of what Babe Ruth’s salary was “worth” can demonstrate this point. His earnings had a “purchasing power” in today’s price of a million dollars, but he could not purchase any effective cure for cancer. His income compared to what the average household spends is three million dollars today and yet there were no television sets to buy and if he could there would be nothing to watch.

However, if the question was how to compare his salary with that of a current super star such as Tiger Woods or Barry Bonds, using Ruth’s wage compared to an unskilled worker, the average income or the percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) he earned gives comparable numbers.

Presented here are six indicators for making such comparisons in US dollars between any two years from 1774 to 2007. They are the CPI, the GDP Deflator, the consumer bundle, the unskilled wage rate, the GDP per capita, and the GDP. Note that only two indicators, the CPI and unskilled wage are available from 1774 to 1790, and the consumer bundle is only available from 1900 to the present.

One or more of the indicators may be most appropriate for you depending on the nature of your query. See below for the definitions of the indicators and some examples.

Descriptions of the indicators

  • The CPI is most often used to make comparisons partly because it is the series with which people are most familiar. This series tries to compare the cost of things the average household buys such as food, housing, transportation, medical services, etc. For earlier years, it is the most useful series for comparing the cost of consumer goods and services. It can be interpreted as how much money you would need today to buy an item in the year in question if its price had changed the same percentage as the average price change.
  • The GDP Deflator is similar to the CPI in that it is a measure of average prices. The “bundle” of goods and services here includes all things produced in the economy, not just consumer goods and services that are reflected in the CPI.
  • The Consumer Bundle is the average dollar value of the annual expenditures of a “consumer unit”. The consumer unit could be a family or another type of household. The main point is that spending is a joint decision of the members of the unit. The bundle increases over time as household income increases. Unlike the CPI, not only the cost but also the amount of goods and services increases over time. Note, the 2006 value of the consumer bundle will not be published until November 2007.
  • The Unskilled Wage Rate is good way to determine the relative cost of something in terms of the amount of work it would take to produce, or the relative time it would take to earn its cost. It can also be useful in comparing different wages over time. The unskilled wage is a more consistent measure than the average wage for making comparisons over time.
  • The GDP per capita is an index of the economy’s average output per person and is closely correlated with the average income. It can be useful in comparing different incomes over time.
  • The GDP is the market value of all goods and services produced in a year. Comparing an expenditure using this measure, tells you how much money in the comparable year would be the same percent of all output.

(Note that these are comparisons of the relative value of an amount of money, and thus the last two are using nominal GDP.)

Here Are Some Examples

  • George Washington was paid a salary of $25,000 a year from 1789 to 1797 as the first president of the United States. The current salary of the president has recently been doubled to $400,000, to go with a $50,000 expense account, a generous pension and several other benefits. Has the remuneration improved?Making a comparison using the CPI for 1790 shows that $25,000 corresponds to over $585,000 today, so the recent raise means current presidents have an equal command over consumer goods as the Father of the Country.

    When comparing Washington’s salary to an unskilled worker, or the measure of average income, GDP per capita, then the comparable numbers are $11 and $24 million. Granted that would not put him in the ranks of the top 25 executives today that make over $200 million. It would, however, be many times more than any elected official in this country is paid today. Finally, to show the “economic power” of his wage, we see that his salary as a share of GDP would rank him equivalent to $1.8 billion.

  • The Erie Canal was built between 1817 and 1825, for a price of $7 million. This waterway is regarded as one of the most important investments in the nineteenth century as it opened the Midwest to trade and migration. How does its cost compare to what its cost would be today?Using the GDP deflator for 1825 shows that it would be $165 million, not more than the cost today of a few miles of Interstate highway. Using the unskilled wage measure the cost is $1.6 billion, a bit more, by GDP per capita the cost is close to $4.4 billion and as a fraction of GDP it comes in close to $120 billion. As a comparison the current budget of the U.S. Department of transportation is $60 billion.

    Because of the volatility of prices in that period, if we had chosen 1817 instead of 1825, the GDP deflator computations would have been about 25% less and the other three variables are different by similar magnitudes as well. This is a good example of how “approximate” these comparisons are.

  • The Civil War was one of the most devastating events in the history of the United States. It lasted from 1861 to 1865 and has been estimated to have direct cost about $6.7 billion valued in 1860 dollars. If this number were evaluated in dollars of today using the GDP deflator it would be $139 billion, less that one year of the cost of the current war in Iraq. This would be inappropriate, as would be using the wage or income indexes. The only measure that makes sense for an expenditure of this size is to use the share of GDP, as the four year cost of the war was more that the entire output of the country. Thus the relative value of $6.7 billion of 1860 would be $21 trillion today, or about 145% of our current GDP.The $6.7 billion does not take into account that the war disrupted the economy and had an impact of lower production into the future. Some economic historians have estimated this additional, or indirect cost, to be another $7.3 billion measured on 1860 dollars. This means the cost of the war (as a share of the output of the economy) was nearly $45 trillion as measured in current dollars.
  • The Model T Ford cost $850 in 1908; however by 1925 the price had fallen to $290. How do we compare these values? If you wanted to compare the two years you would see that by using the CPI, the GDP deflator or the consumer bundle, $850 in 1908 is equivalent to between $1,485 and $1,670 in 1925. Using the wage indicator we see that the labor cost (of the 1908 car in 1925 wages) was $2,094 and by using the GDP per capita indicator it was $1,957. Thus in 1925 the $290 was less than 20% of its cost in 1908 using the price indexes and only 14% using the wage indicators and 15% using the GDP per capita.If we wanted to consider the costs of the Model T using today’s prices we would find that the $850 cost in 1908 is $19,760 in today’s prices using the CPI, $14,700 using the GDP deflator, about $45,000 using the consumer bundle, $84,700 using the wage indicators, and $115,000 when comparing using the GDP per capita.

    The $290 in 1925, on the other hand, would be only $3,400 in today’s prices using the CPI, $2,900 using the GDP deflator, $7,600 using the consumer bundle, $11,700 using the wage indicators, and $17,000 when comparing its cost as a share of GDP per capita.

  • Babe Ruth signed a contract on March 10, 1930 with the American League Base Ball Club of New York (The Yankees) to play baseball for the next two years at an annual salary for $80,000. In 2007 the CPI was 13.6 times larger than it was in 1931 and the GDP deflator 11.6 times larger. This means that if we are interested in Ruth’s purchasing power of housing or meals, then he was “earning” the equivalence of about $1,000,000 today.In 2007, the average consumer unit spends about 32 times in dollars as it spent than 76 years earlier. Thus, if we want to compare Ruth’s earnings using the index of what the average household buys, it would be over $2,500,000 today. The relative cost of (unskilled) labor is 46 times higher in 2007 than in 1932. So if we wanted to compare his wage to what someone selling hot dogs would earn, we could say his “relative wage” is $3,200,000.

    GDP per capita and GDP are 74 and 180 times larger in 2007 than they were in 1931. Thus Ruth’s earnings relative to the average output would be $5,900,000 today. Finally, as a share of GDP, Ruth “output” that year would be $14,400,000 in today’s money.

  • Putting a man on the moon: During March (1966): NASA told Congress the “run-out cost” of the Apollo program (to put men on the moon) would be an estimated $22.718 billion for the 13 year program that accomplished six successful missions of putting astronauts on the moon between July 1969 and December 1972. (http://www.hq.nasa.gov/office/pao/History/SP-4009/keyev4.htm) According the Steve Garber, NASA History Web Curator, the final cost was between $20 and $25 billion.How much would that be today? If we used the CPI, it would be $136 billion, but this would not be a very good measure since the CPI does not reflect the cost of rockets and launch pads. Using the consumer bundle would not be relevant either. Using the broader based GDP deflator gives a present cost of $117 billion. The alternative of using the wage indicators would be a rough measure of the labor cost in current terms and it would be $155 billion. By using the GDP per capita, we are measuring the cost in terms of average product and would get a number of $259 billion. Finally, a way to consider the “opportunity cost” to society, the best measure might be the cost as a percent of GDP, and that number would be $390 billion. This amount over thirteen years would be $30 billion per year. As a comparison, the NASA budget for the current fiscal year is approximately $15 billion.
  • The “real” price of gasoline: Gasoline cost 27 cents a gallon in 1949 compared to around $4.00 today.* How has the relative cost of buying gas changed over the last 59 years? Presented here are two tables computing the annual “real” cost using our five indicators, one in 2007 dollars, the current number used for real GDP, and the other in 1949 dollars. While the two tables show the same trends, they do give a different perspective.Using the 2007 table and the CPI and the GDP deflator, we see that gasoline was quite expensive in 1980 and 1981 and the cheapest in 1998 and 1999. Today, the real price using these two measures is higher than the period at the beginning of the 1980s.

    By looking at the share of the Consumer Bundle and GDP per capita, the story is a bit different. In 1981, a gallon of gas took as much out of what the average consumer spent as $4.00 does in 2007. And as a share of GDP per capita, gas was even more expensive in those earlier days with it at over $4.50 in 1980 and more expensive in the earlier years.

    The other table tells the story in a different way. Let us look at relative cost to an unskilled worker to fill up using 1949 dollars. That year the 27 cents it cost for a gallon of gas, took a certain share of the worker’s wage. The interesting question is, has the cost as a share or percent of the worker’s wage increased or decreased over time? The table shows that for the wage rate and price of gasoline in other years, this cost has fallen. Since wages have increased faster than the price of gasoline, by 2007 an unskilled worker spends only two-thirds as much, as a percent of wage, for a gallon of gasoline than the 1949 worker. The table shows that the $2.85 a worker paid in 2007 would be comparable to only 20 cents (in 1949 prices “share” of the wage.

    When we use the GDP per capita, the cost has fallen faster. Looking at the table shows that a gallon of gasoline costs around 11 cents a gallon (in 1949 prices) if measured as a “share” of the GDP per capita. This is because in 1949, 27 cents was .015% of per capita GDP, while in 2007, $2.85 was .006%.

    Finally, comparing its cost as a share of GDP, we see that in 1949 prices, it is about 6 cents. This means that a gallon gasoline was a four and a half times larger share of output in 1949 than it is today.

    * The nominal price of gasoline can be found at found at http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/petro.html andhttp://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_gnd_dcus_nus_a.htm For the tables used here, I used the price of a gallon of leaded regular from 1949 to 1976, the average of the price of leaded regular and unleaded regular from 1977 to 1990 and the price of unleaded regular from 1991 to 2007.

Citation

Samuel H. Williamson, “Six Ways to Compute the Relative Value of a U.S. Dollar Amount, 1774 to present,” MeasuringWorth, 2008. URLhttp://www.measuringworth.com/uscompare/

Ruby projecthez

Sinatra

Create a cool CSS-based drop-down menu
Install Ruby on Rails application

http://www.logoinstant.com/

http://blog.saush.com/2009/04/clone-tinyurl-in-40-lines-of-ruby-code/

http://wiki.github.com/joshuaclayton/blueprint-css/tutorials

http://www.sinatrarb.com/faq.html#multiroute

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szerelmes vers + kínai bölcsesség

Szabó Lőrinc: Szeretlek
Szeretlek, szeretlek, szeretlek,
egész nap kutatlak, kereslek,
egész nap sírok a testedért,
szomorú kedves a kedvesért,
egész nap csókolom testedet,
csókolom minden percedet.

Minden percedet csókolom,
nem múlik ízed az ajkamon,
csókolom a földet, ahol jársz,
csókolom a percet, mikor vársz,
messziről kutatlak, kereslek,
szeretlek, szeretlek, szeretlek.

“Vehetsz házat
De otthont nem;
Vehetsz ágyat,
De álmot nem;
Vehetsz órát,
De időt nem.

Vehetsz könyvet,
De tudást nem;
Vehetsz pozíciót,
De tiszteletet nem;
Megfizetheted az orvost,
De az egészséget nem.

Megveheted a lelket,
De az életet nem;
Megveheted a szexet,
De a szerelmet nem.”

http://skins.freeblog.hu/categories/Idezetek/

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Ubuntu Ramdisk project

recursive package dependency listing on Debian systems

sudo su
apt-get install apt-rdepends
Suggested packages:
vcg springgraph graphviz

http://blogs.sun.com/amitsaha/entry/apt_rdepends_reverse_package_dependency

“Felesleges” fájlok törlése

apt-get clean
delete .deb files

List all installed packages in size order
dpkg-query –show –showformat=’${Package;-50}\t${Installed-Size}\n’ | sort -k 2 -n

http://ubuntuforums.org/showthread.php?t=599424

http://www.alexonlinux.com/opening-and-modifying-the-initrd

http://www.silentpcreview.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=48568&sid=a5742ca22348e8529ffc7a0691de6499

bash.hu #71075

#71075 -> + (131) – [X]

Délután 3 óra körül. Molyolok a számítógépem elott. Csöng a telefon, felveszem, bemutatkozom, ahogy szoktam:
- ……….Kft., Gipsz Jakab, Jó napot kívánok!
A túloldalon egy – hangjából ítélve – komoly, érett férfi hang:
- Jó napot kívánok, és XY vagyok a ………. Kft ügyvezetoje. Ma reggel
küldtünk Önöknek egy árajánlat kérést. Érdeklodnék, hogy megkapták-e, mert még nem jött a visszaigazolás.
- Uram, mindjárt megnézem! – és lekérdezem a postafiókomat. Az említett üzenet nem jött meg.
Ezt közlöm a túloldallal is.
- Akkor elküldenénk még egyszer, és kérném, hogy mielobb válaszoljon rá, mert sürgos lenne a munka. – elbúcsúzás mindkét oldalról. El telik fél óra, megnézem a mailboxot, semmi. Egy negyed óra múlva megint megnézem, még mindig semmi. Telefon csöng, ugyanaz az illeto. Megállapítjuk, hogy a level még mindig nem jött meg. Majd hallom a telefonban:
- De hát itt van a sikertelen küldések között, nem csoda, hogy nem ment el.- majd a telefontól eltávolodva kiabál: – Marika! Húzza már ki egy pillanatra a ROUTER-nek a tápját! – halkan hallom Marikát:
- Melyik az fonök?
- Az a kis fekete doboz, a számítógép asztal mellett, a földön.
- Az van ráírva, hogy: R-O-U-T-E-R.
- Ezt a fekete konnektort, amin piros szalag van, azt húzzam ki?
- NEEEEM!!! AZ A SZERVER!!! Mondom, hogy egy kis fekete doboz, abba megy egy fekete zsinór, azt tessék kihúzni, majd 10 másodperc múlva visszadugni!
- Na de fonök, nekem nincsen stopperórám, elég, ha mobilomon nézem?
- Elég ha lassan elszámol 10-ig, de húzza már ki, hogy végre rendbe jöjjön rendszer. Reggel óta kb. 40-50 E-mailunk nem ment el.
- Fonök, találtam egy szürke dobozt a falon, ezt most kikapcsoljam?
- NEEEEM!!!!! AZ A RIASZTÓÓÓ!!!! HOZZÁ NE NYÚLJON!!!! Mondom, hogy egy kis fekete doboz, a számítógép asztal mellett, a földön.
- Ja, fonök! Most jut eszembe, hogy arra ma véletlenül ráöntöttem a müzlis joghurtomat, és elmosogattam. Ott van a szárítórácson.
Egy csendes, lakonikusan beletörodo, hang a túloldalról:
- Jézusom…

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The times they are a changin’

20hC5WuLgoifpy1dNVkg9EReo1_500

:) , The times they are a changin’ –  innen

A csekk, amivel megvették Alaszkát

800px-Alaska_Purchase_(hi-res)

:) nem is tudtam, hogy ilyen hagyományos eszközhöz folyamodtak, bár, miért is kellett volna túlbonyolítani a dolgot…

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Mennyi tőke szükséges havi 100 000 Ft jövedelemkiegészítéshez?

Egy érdekes kérdést kaptam email-en:
Tisztelt BWM!

Azt szeretném megtudni, hogy havi 100.000 Ft rendszeres jövedelemhez mennyi tőke szükséges, úgy hogy közben a tőke* reál értéken* megmarad, azaz legalább az infláció értékével növekszik, és persze a mostani 100.000 Ft is követi az inflációt.

Fiatal vagyok, nem kívánom felélni a tőkémet, ezért nem számolok azzal, hogy 30 éven belül meghalok, tehát fontos számomra, hogy az említett havi 100.000 Ft és az ehhez szükséges tőke kövesse legalább az inflációt.

Ezzel kapcsolatban sehol sem találok megfelelő információt, ezért kérem az Önök véleményét. Mindenhol csak arról írnak, hogy mibe fektessünk, meg, hogy takarékoskodjunk, de arról, hogy mekkora megtakarítást halmozzunk fel
(esetleg még fiatalon, ha valaki szerencsés), arról sehol sem írnak.

Matematikai oldalról nagyon könnyű megválaszolni a kérdést. Ha például az infláció felett 1%-os nettó hozamtöbbletet érünk el, akkor a szükséges éves 1 200 000 Ft-os jövedelemtöbblethez 120 000 000 Ft szükséges (1,2 m Ft /1%). Ha a hozamtöbblet 5%, akkor 24 m Ft, ha 10%, akkor 12 m Ft elegendő.

A gyakorlatban azonban a következő problémák merülnek fel:

Nem tudjuk mennyi lesz az infláció
Ennélfogva nominális értéken nem tudjuk mekkora lesz a szükséges hozam
Mivel nem tudjuk mekkora az infláció, ezért nem tudjuk, hogy van-e bármilyen garantált hozam hosszútávon, ami reálértéken megveri a fogyasztói árindexet, hiszen nincs mihez mérni

Empirikus tapasztalatok alapján igen valószínű, hogy a szükséges – általunk nem ismert nagyságú – hozamtöbblet nem érhető el kockázatmentesnek tekintett befektetési eszközökkel (jellemzően állampapír), így a cél érdekében kockázatot kell vállalni

A kockázatvállalás miatt, még ha sikerrel is járunk, szinte biztos, hogy a befektetési eszköz értéke, árfolyama jelentősen ingadozni fog, emiatt a havi 100 000 Ft-os jövedelemigény gyakran a tőkét fogja csökkenteni, ami a későbbi hozamtermelés abszolút nagyságára is kihatással lesz. Sőt. még a kockázatmentes eszközök sem teljesítenek kifizetés havonta, vagyis csökkentenünk kell befektetésünk értékét, néha és átmenetileg

Az adó mértéke kihatással van az elért nettó nominális hozamra, ami a reálhozamban drasztikus eltéseket okozhat
Ráadásul mindenkinek más és más az egyéni fogyasztói kosara, a saját “személyes inflációja” is eltérő lesz, a hivatalos adat egy jellemzői figyasztói kosárral kalkulál

A felvetett problémák jól jellemzik azt, hogy mekkora szakadék van a ma egyetemeken, tankönyvekben oktatott elméleti anyag és a gyakorlat, illetve a gyakorlatban felmerülő igények között. Két kitörési pont van: az elmélet jobban igazodik a gyakorlathoz (ez már jó ideje elkezdődött, csak lassan zajlik, pl. a behavioural finance beszivárgásával), illetve az igény oldaláról annak elfogadásával, hogy természeténél fogva bizonytalan világban élünk. Ebben a világban minél messzebre nézünk előre, annél kevésbé biztos hogy mi fog történni, ezért rendszeresen és rugalmasan igazodni kell a lehetőségekhez.

Ezért itt is az adott válasz végül idővel biztosan kiigazításra kell, hogy kerüljön.

A jelenlegi állampapír hozam 3 évre 10,43% (forrás), bár az eladási ár 2 tizeddel alacsonyabb hozamot jelez, nagy összegnél ezen lehet faragni, és elhanyagolható változást okoz. Az aktuális inflációs ráta 3,4% (forrás). A különbség 7%, a szükséges tőke 17 142 857 Ft, ha nem számolunk kamatadóval. Ha számolunk, akkor durván 5% a differencia, így 24 000 000 Ft-ra van szükség. Ám az infláció pár évig ismét magasabb szinten lehet, ezért az átlagos nettó reálhozam 3% környékén valószínű a következő években, amihez már 40 000 000 Ft tőke kell. Ezenkívül tudni kell, hogy az államkötvény évente kétszer fizet kamatot, közben vagy tartalékolni kell, vagy eladni belőle, ha havi jövedelemigényünk van.

A szükséges összeg csökkentéséhez kockáztatni kell, például részvények, részvényalapok, abszolút hozamú alapok vásárlásával. De mint említettem a fenti számítás sem kockázatmentes, hiszen nem tudjuk az infláció mértékét, és a magyar állampapír is “csak 99,9%-os biztonságú, nem 100%. Továbbá fontos tudni, hogy az állampapír árfolyama is ingadozik, ezért a fenti hozam csak lejáratig való tartás esetén garantált az állam által. Plusz: akkor még nem beszéltünk arról, hogy mi lesz a fennmaradó 20 évben, hiszen a levélíró minimum 30 éves időtartamról beszélt.

Véleményem szerint még ilyen jó körülmények között (ilyen magas reálhozam nagyon kevés országban van, itt sem lesz sokáig) is rossz hozzáállás, ha biztosra akarunk menni. A kockázat jelentős, de még ésszerű mértékű emelésével is elérhető 15%-os nettó éves nominális hozam hosszútávon. Egyáltalán nem garantált, de ilyen hosszú időre tervezve bőven 50% feletti valószínűséggel teljesíthető. Az ár a durva a drawdown-okban jelenik meg, ezért 5%-os hosszútávú infláció mellett a 10%-os hozamtöbblet elvileg csak 12 000 000 Ft-ot követelne meg, de ezt érdemes legkevesebb 20%-kal túltervezni, ami alaphangon 15 000 000 Ft-ot jelent, mert ha az elején fut bele az ember egy nagy visszaesésbe, az időközben kivont összegek miatt később kevesebbet fog keresni.

innen

Fixing Samba symbolic links’ problem from Leopard

/etc/samba/smb.conf
a [global] részbe kell betenni
unix extensions = no
/etc/init.d/samba restart

ezután  cmd-k, új kapcsolat smb://ip.cím, username, password és remélhetőleg müxik

innen

The Learjet repo man

Business has never been better for the fearless pilot who takes back millionaires’ expensive toys.

By Marc Weingarten

The Learjet repo man

June 6, 2009

It was snowing hard when the bank called Nick Popovich. They needed to grab a Gulfstream in South Carolina now. Not tomorrow. Tonight.

All commercial and private planes were grounded, but Nick Popovich wasn’t one to turn down a job. So he waited for the storm to clear long enough to charter a Hawker jet from Chicago into South Carolina. There was just one detail: No one had told Popovich about the heavily armed white supremacist militia that would be guarding the aircraft when he arrived.

But then again, no one had told the militia about Popovich, a brawny and intimidating man who has been jailed and shot at and has faced down more angry men than a prison warden. When Popovich and two of his colleagues arrived that evening at a South Carolina airfield, they were met by a bunch of nasty-looking thugs with cocked shotguns. “They had someone in the parking lot with binoculars,” Popovich says, recalling the incident. “When we went to grab the plane, one of them came out with his weapon drawn and tells us we better get out of there.” Undeterred, Popovich continued toward the plane until he felt a gun resting on his temple.

“You move another inch and I’ll blow your fucking head off,” the gravel-and-nicotine voice told Popovich.

“Well, you better go ahead and shoot, ’cause I’m grabbing that plane.”

A shot was discharged in the air.

The gravel-and-nicotine voice again. “I’m not kidding.”

“Then do it already.”

Popovich’s first rule of firearms is pretty simple: The man who tells you he’s going to shoot you will not shoot you. So without so much as looking back, he got on the plane and flew it right to Chicago. “My job is to grab that plane,” Popovich says. “And if you haven’t paid for it, then it’s mine. And I don’t like to lose.”

Nick Popovich is a repo man, but not the kind that spirits away Hyundais from suburban driveways. Popovich is a super repo man, one of a handful of specialists who get the call when a bank wants back its Gulfstream II jet from, say, a small army of neo-Nazi freaks.

For the past three decades, Popovich has been one of a secret tribe of big game hunters who specialize in stealing jets from the jungle hideouts of corrupt landowners in Colombia, Mexico and Brazil and swiping go-fast boats from Wall Street titans in Miami and East Hampton. Super repos have been known to hire swat teams, hijack supertankers and fly off with eastern bloc military helicopters. For a cut of the overall value, they’ll repossess anything.

But Popovich is the most renowned of them all — the Ernest Hemingway of super repo men. “Nick is the best of the best,” says Doug Lipke, head of the bankruptcy group for the law firm Vedder Price, who has called Popovich on numerous occasions to retrieve jumbo jets from fat cats with thinning balance sheets. One time, Lipke needed a plane repo-ed from Michigan and flown to Chicago. “All the electrical went out on the plane and Nick was flying at night,” he says. “He flew that plane back with zero electricity — no lights, nothing. There aren’t many guys that would be able to do that.”

Today Popovich, 56, is co-partner of Sage-Popovich, a repossession firm. (Sage is his wife, Pat, also the firm’s president.) Their clients include Citibank, Transamerica and Credit Suisse, and the firm annually earns, Popovich says, “into the low-to-mid seven figures.” That estimate isn’t ridiculous when you consider that the most difficult jobs can net Popovich anywhere from $600,000 to $900,000. Popovich’s specialty is big planes, jumbo jets, mostly; he’s repo-ed 1,300 of them in his career. And that’s just the solo gigs. Throw in the 65 repo men who work for him, and the number reaches closer to 2,000.

His mandate is simple. Someone misses a few payments. The bank wants to recover its plane. There will be an attempt to set up some kind of debt payment plan. Failing that, collateral has to be ponied up. If there is none, then an account executive reaches out to Popovich. But Jumbo Jets are expensive — a 747 will run you anywhere from $125 million to $260 million — and people who try to acquire such toys are loath to give them back. If the deadbeat gets wind that the bank is sniffing around his plane, he’s likely to spirit it away before anyone has a chance to grab it, and then it becomes a cat-and-rat game that can take months to complete.

And times have never been better. When lenders opened the sluice gates of easy credit throughout the last decade, high rollers went out and splurged on Gulfstreams and yachts. When the job goes away, the bonuses dry up and the stock market tanks, it’s a long and nasty downward spiral that leads to Popovich’s door. “Oh, those guys are a real piece of work,” says Popovich of the fallen Masters of the Universe. “We’ve had to fly halfway around the world just to find a plane we were told would be in Dallas. You have to think like a crook to find them.”

These days, Popovich is fielding assignments as fast as he can handle them. “We’ve got a lot of business right now,” he says. “We recently recovered planes from Okun and Nadel.” Popovich is referring to Edward Okun and Arthur G. Nadel, two Bernie Madoff-manqués that have been accused of stealing hundreds of millions of dollars from unsuspecting clients who thought they were safely investing their money ($300 million in Nadel’s case, the largest alleged hedge fund fraud in Florida history). Among the booty that Popovich was hired to return were two Gulfstream IIs and a Learjet.

A good super repo man has a skill set that’s some mad hybrid of cat burglar, F.B.I. agent and con artist. And there’s real danger that comes with the job, not just ticked-off homeowners wielding baseball bats. According to the American Recovery Association, there are, on average, one or two repo-related deaths a year.

In 2006, a Czechoslovakian-made Albatross L-39 combat jet lifted off from Sitka, Alaska, and crashed into a trailer park in the small community of Ketchikan, Alaska. The pilot was found dead 100 yards from the destruction, still strapped into his seat. He had no identification on him. His profession was listed as repo man. In Minnesota, a boat repo specialist named Kim Zarbinksi was repelled when the angry owner of a 40-foot yacht refused to give him his boat. So Zarbinksi resorted to sterner measures. He hired a SWAT team to help him grab the rotten booty.

You want stories? Popovich has volumes. And tells them without a note of bragging or conceit. On a recent warm afternoon, the unfailingly polite repo man and I are strolling through his cavernous warehouse in Gary, Ind. It feels like browsing a Costco run by the Pentagon. There are airplane parts as far as the eye can see — jet engines sit on shelves next to wheel casings and propellers. The detritus of a recent job sits in gigantic vats — hundreds of headphones in one, telephones in another.

Right now the warehouse is overflowing thanks to his most ambitious job to date: “stealing” a fleet of 240 corporate helicopters from a chain of flight schools for a tidy six-figure fee. Nevada-based Silver State was one of the country’s fastest growing companies, mainly because its owner Jerry Airola was constructing a pyramid scheme as tall as the Cheops. When everything collapsed, Popovich was hired to retrieve 240 copters from 51 locations around the country. In 24 hours, Nick and his 125-member crew had to change the locks at all 51 Silver Star schools, then move in 125 flatbeds to haul not only the copters but everything else they could carry — furniture, spare parts, computers, simulators.

“The copters were a mess,” says Popovich. “Some of them hadn’t been flown in months. Once we shipped them all back to the warehouse, we stripped the worst ones for parts for the bank. I figured that at least we were putting them to good use that way.”

Inside his 120-acre, ranch-style compound in rural Valparaiso, Ind., Popovich recalls some of his most notorious adventures in disarmingly soft-spoken and courtly tones. There was the time in the ’80s when he was thrown into a Haitian jail cell. Jail stints came with the job, but this time was different.

Inside the cell, Haitian cops had turned Popovich’s face inside out. The pain was ungodly. His shoes were gone. He was starving. And Popovich was sitting in a cage surrounded by 35 prisoners spitting epithets in his face. His only priority was to avoid getting hurt any worse than he already was. In his experience, that meant behaving like a total maniac, lashing out at the nearest prisoners and threatening to kill anyone that came near him.

The charge was the attempted theft of a 707 jumbo jet and he was facing 20 years to life. The jet in question belonged to a Caribbean tour company that went bust. After a few missed payments, the bank had called Popovich, who had tracked the plane from the Dominican Republic to Haiti. The gig promised to be simple. Popovich even spotted the battered silver-and-blue jet on the tarmac as he taxied into Port Au Prince’s Toussaint L’Ouverture airport on a sweltering February afternoon. All he needed was an hour to check the avionics, an open runway and a flight plan. It hadn’t worked out that way.

By the third day of his imprisonment — sometime after the American embassy politely informed him that the bank employing him wouldn’t put up $100,000 in bail — details started to come back. The tracer fire pinging the plane’s wings like popcorn kernels. Men with bayonets slamming on the fuselage. A police cruiser skidding to a halt right in front of the jet, blocking the runway and preventing Nick from taking off. The cops beating him senseless and throwing him in Penitentier National prison. And now, here he was.

On the seventh day of his incarceration, Haitian President Baby Doc Duvalier was overthrown and the rioting masses swung open all of the cell doors. Bruised, bloody and sleepless, Popovich hobbled out of his cell. As he taxied down the runway for the second time. he couldn’t help thinking that what they said was true: Flying home is always the easy part.

Reared in Hammond, Ind. — just a few miles from his current Valparaiso home base — Popovich got his pilot license when he was 16 because his father thought it might be useful some day. It was the only time he ever said “yes” to Dad. He tried Indiana University for a semester but it didn’t take.

Then in 1975 he met two men named Toby Howard and Billy Day in Wichita while hanging with some mutual friends. A pair of hustlers, they had all kinds of ideas for how to get rich quick. Popovich followed them for six months, hawking faulty tire repair kits that would explode in winter and some multilevel marketing schemes. The contacts he’d make through Howard and Day led him into small-time arms dealing. Popovich bought out a Utah company that had been indicted for weapons violations and turned it into a thriving business. “We built .22 caliber weapons into briefcases with micro switches and laser sightings,” he says. He sold his guns to the Canadian Special Ops and maybe to a few places he shouldn’t have. He mentions something about being “in South America at the wrong time.” He also drops a hint about conducting business in Iraq.

Popovich became a Braniff pilot in 1976. But that was boring. So he quit. He wouldn’t find his true calling until 1979, when a banker friend asked for his help getting back a Cessna 310 from a small-time chartering business. “I flew down there, grabbed it and got paid for it. I didn’t think anything of it,” he says. “I dropped off the plane and the guy calls yelling his head off. He says, ‘You didn’t ask for enough money! Send me a new bill but multiply it by three!’”

A few days later, Popovich found $145,000 in his checking account. A super repo man had been born.

Sage-Popovich now has 65 super repos, ranging from former crop-dusters and commercial pilots to Marines and airport mechanics. One of Popovich’s aces, Ed Dearborn, flew for Air America, the CIA’s covert Vietnam-era airline, and even helped build landing strips in remote jungle outposts in Southeast Asia. A good year is five popped planes; Kevin Lacey, one of Popovich’s best men, grabs 10 when he’s on a roll.

Now that Popovich has worked with some of his guys for 20 years or more, he has learned to take good care of them. When Lacey was imprisoned while attempting to snatch a jet in Brazil a few years ago, Popovich made sure the local hotel shipped edible food to his cell until the legal mess could be cleared up. It was the least he could do, given the fact that Lacey had been dragged in humiliating fashion right through the passenger terminal in handcuffs. “The inmates in Brazilian jails have more guns than the police,” said Lacey. “It’s best to make friends with them quickly.”

Because Lacey is a master mechanic, he is an invaluable resource for lenders. If a plane is sitting on blocks, its windows cracked and its avionics blown out, Lacey can fix it and fly it out. He’s also pretended to be a mechanic on numerous occasions; it gets him inside the plane and up in the air a lot quicker. That plane in Brazil required the use of a “claw hammer and rusty pliers” for Lacey to fix it.

Like most super repo guys, Lacey works freelance and flies just about everything with two wings. He’s certified in eight types of aircraft. The Air Force would be lucky to have him, but the repo game is far more thrilling. And a lot more lucrative.

The money is pretty good, depending on the size of the plane and the complexity of the repo. But for Lacey, the job is its own reward, despite the fact that many pilots consider it an unseemly profession. “My tact and my diligence are my greatest weapons,” he says. “I have to think and react before someone else does, or I’m sunk. Often, they will be on the lookout for you, so you find yourself chasing something while someone else is chasing you.”

The super repo business is extremely time-sensitive; Popovich must calibrate his maneuvers with military precision or else the entire operation crumbles. The minute Popovich gets a call, he has his team prepare a “Repo Book,” which contains all of the relevant documentation necessary to take back a plane. An airport won’t let you fly off with a jumbo jet without all kinds of paperwork: lease terminations, powers of attorney, customs bonds and certificates of insurance. (There’s a reason Sage-Popovich has eight lawyers on retainer.) Within an hour of the initial contact, everything is accounted for, all the way down to the catering for the crew.

While the Repo Book is assembled, Popovich will get his scouts on the ground to figure out where the plane is. The company has people all over the globe who are more than happy to track down an item for him for a small fee. More often than not, the aircraft will turn up in a major airport or commercial hub, and from there it’s easy sailing: Show up, hand over the documentation, get in the cockpit and fly away. Popovich estimates that three-quarters of his jobs go off exactly that way.

The rest are stickier affairs — starring angry owners, armed security, even intransigent airport workers, who will be out tens of thousands of dollars in unpaid fuel, landing fees and maintenance costs if a plane suddenly goes missing. In that case, half the game for Popovich is sneaking on to the aircraft and flying it out before anyone’s hip to what he’s doing. “That’s why you never, ever use the plane’s two-way radio,” says Popovich with a laugh. “People might get wind of your plans before you even have a chance to secure your seat belt. If you need to file a flight plan, you use your cell phone to call the tower.”

One time, he pretended to be a limo driver picking up a client. When airport security turned its back, Popovich slipped off his black overcoat and eight-point chauffeur cap and finagled his way onto the plane.

Aircraft on a runway is a lot easier to grab, but the walk to the cockpit is longer than the Bataan Death March. You might as well radio the tower before walking up to a vacant jet without permission, because you’re inevitably going to get busted. For a repo job in Miami, Popovich commandeered a catering truck from a friendly driver and the crew let him on board unbidden. On numerous occasions he has loaded his guys into a baggage cart, dropped the curtain and driven up to the cargo hold. From there, it’s a slinky stretch on hands and knees from the luggage compartment into the cockpit.

Really tough targets require sterner measures. In 1998, Popovich was hired to repo two jets in the possession of Francois Arpels, scion of the Van Cleef and Arpels jewelry empire. Arpels had leased two Boeing MD-81s for a charter service he started called Fairlines, but failed to make his payments.

“I landed in Paris and contacted Arpels to see if we could work something out,” says Popovich. “Arpels tells me, ‘I’m Francois Arpels and this is Paris. You will never find the planes.’ I looked him right in the eye and told him, ‘Frankie, they are all but gone. Trust me.’ He hated the fact that I called him Frankie. That really got under his skin.”

Using his European scouts, Popovich tracked one plane in Milan; the other was sitting on the tarmac near Terminal One at Charles DeGaulle Airport. The MD-81 was covered in official-looking documentation written in French, so Popovich just ripped everything off and hopped in. Big mistake. The airport cops stopped him as he was taxiing and threw him in a cell overnight. The next day, a French magistrate had handcuffs slapped on Popovich and ordered him returned to Chicago. “I was more determined than ever to grab those damn planes,” he says. “You push me, I push back harder.”

A few weeks later he snuck back into the country, convinced a captain with an Air Afrique fuel bus to fill up Arpel’s Boeing and flew it out. But the Milan plane was trickier. The engine was behaving erratically, and no sane person should fly a bird with a hinky engine. Popovich had a replacement engine in Munich (engine-swapping is a common occurrence in the business) and the only way to get it would be to make the 50 minute flight and pray.

As his pilot Ed Dearborn climbed to altitude, Popovich remembers sitting in the back, furtively stealing looks at that shaky equipment. “The whole time I sat there thinking, ‘If that engine lets go, I’m fucked.’” When they got to Germany and opened it up, the mechanics estimated that another couple of hours of airtime and the thing would have melted down. Along with Nick and his guys.

Popovich even met his wife on a repo. He was casing an exotic car company in Chicago when a leonine blond walked in to the dealership. “We all looked at each other and said, ‘A hundred bucks for the first guy that nails her,’” he says. “Twenty million dollars in business together later, here we are.” The couple’s two boys, Zachary, 18 and Max, 20, work for Sage-Popovich when they can. Zachary attends college and does repos in his spare time.

Popovich’s daredevil days are behind him for the most part; now he’s working with a new generation to do the job. He would like his two sons to go about it a little differently than he did. Maybe a bit more cautiously, for starters. He wants his son Zach to take over the business one day, but “he wants to open a bar in Sun Valley instead.” He has in mind an exit strategy, though he’s not sure when, if ever, he’ll implement it. Life is too good to stop now. Just pick up the paper — every day word breaks of another investor, another pyramid scheme, another crook who has a date with Popovich.

Tooling around Valparaiso in his Bentley, with Bob Dylan playing softly in the background, Popovich tries to put into words just how great it feels to pull off a big repo job. “It’s like a giant chess game, and the stakes can be your life,” he says. “It’s always a different challenge, a test of how smart you are. Can you outfox someone else? There’s always going to be some covert action involved. And you throw a big payoff in there, well, it’s just intoxicating.” He pauses. “Repossessing a giant, gleaming multimillion dollar plane is kind of like courting a beautiful woman. Sometimes the chase is better than the catch.” And the chase is never complete.

http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2009/06/06/lear_jet_repo_man/index.html

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Perl + Windows

Strawberry Perl portable version letölt, kitömörít (pl.: D:\Strawberry)


D:\Strawberry\perl\bin

path=d:\Strawberry\c\bin;d:\Strawberry\perl\bin;C:\WINDOWS\system32

cpan

install

install Win32::Process::Memory
install Win32::Process::Info

http://search.cpan.org/~qjzhou/Win32-Process-Memory-0.20/Memory.pm

http://strawberryperl.com/releases.html

http://damienlearnsperl.blogspot.com/2009/01/install-strawberry-perl-your-windows.html

Perl Tutorial

WWDC 2009

wwdc2009-369
Yeah! :) Nekem ez tetszett a sok bejelentés közül a legjobban.

OpenWrt – WLAN kikapcsolása

OpenWrt – turning off WLAN
The correct way is to use UCI:

Disable wireless

uci set wireless.wifi0.disabled=1
uci commit wireless && wifi

Enable wireless

uci set wireless.wifi0.disabled=0
uci commit wireless && wifi

The disabled option can have the values 1=disable wireless and 0=enable wireless.

innen

Upgrading WordPress

http://codex.wordpress.org/Upgrading_WordPress_Extended

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Your computer desktop

phd050409s
A todo list, meg az olvasandó pdf-ek telitalálat. :) innen

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